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Author Topic: British General Election  (Read 2881 times)
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MoominDave

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« Reply #40 on: Jun 12, 2017, 03:25AM »

I was surprised that Cameron stepped aside so quickly after Brexit.  Just to give the job to someone else who also said they didn't want Brexit? But then somehow was going to enthusiastically do it anyway?

I'm also surprised that no one had the courage to say, "hey, it was just an non-binding referendum that didn't pass by a huge majority. Let's take time to think about it."

It should have been Cameron saying that.

Cameron was a politician of little substance, that much is obvious. The times needed deft leadership, but we had a man who was oblivious to that.

I continue surprised that there hasn't been a serious political pushback against it. A marginal result after an ill-natured campaign of disinformation - this is not remotely a sound basis on which to gamble all that we are gambling.
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Dave Taylor

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« Reply #41 on: Jun 12, 2017, 03:27AM »

Referenda are horrible things. They split the country from top to bottom,

Behold, every US Presidential election of the last 30 years.


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See above. I would be extremely surprised to learn that the 2015 UKIP vote went to the Lib Dems anywhere


Extremely surprised you should be then.  There were indeed constituencies where the loss by UKIP and similar gain by Lib Dem were clear among only slight changes for other parties.

One could imagine a scenario of cascading transfers around all the parties that gives the same apparent result without one single UKIP voter actually switching to LibDem but... probably less likely than the simple explanation.

Why might a 2015 UKIP voter switch to Lib Dem in 2017? Low-information voters who weren't all that serious about Brexit or had not really thought it through or just cast what they thought was a safe protest vote that would have no consequence.


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The Republic of Ireland clause I suspect relates to the peculiar historic constitutional interrelation of the two countries. The ROI was a part of the UK until 1922, when it broke away, and ever since ROI citizens have retained their UK voting rights.

I see it as based in some sort of deep-seated refusal to admit Ireland has really, totally left the building.  Yeah, RIGHT.
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Robert Holmén

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MoominDave

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« Reply #42 on: Jun 12, 2017, 03:32AM »

Personally, I was very much in favour of Brexit and I do not think the Brits have to kowtow to their old Euro partners to get acceptable conditions of exit. The boot should be on the other foot with GB resuming its old position of world leadership - certainly needed with Trump dropping the US from that position. Not that I think May could do that. Or Corbyn.

Does Britain have many cards to play in getting a Brexit that's better than plain old non-EU status that all the rest of us have?

They talk about threatening to stop buying French wine and German cars but they're a WTO member which wouldn't allow that without sanctions, right?  Are they going to quit the WTO too?

There isn't much Britain can do that the rest of Europe can't do back.

Here we have two contrasting views on what is possible from Brexit. I think it is near needless to say that I am very much in Robert's camp here. This isn't 1880. We don't own India, to use as a subjugated cash cow to support any jingoistic venture that we might choose. We don't use our military might to bully others into doing things for us. We don't even have much military might these days. This idea of Britannia once again ruling the waves drove all too much Leave-y thinking in the vote - it isn't a possible outcome. We'll come out of the EU negotiations largely with what the rest of the EU specify - they're 7 times the size of us populationwise.
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Dave Taylor

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MoominDave

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« Reply #43 on: Jun 12, 2017, 03:33AM »

Apologies for the blitz of posts - I've been meaning to catch up on this thread for a few days...
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Dave Taylor

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« Reply #44 on: Jun 12, 2017, 03:40AM »

...
I see it as based in some sort of deep-seated refusal to admit Ireland has really, totally left the building.  Yeah, RIGHT.

I look at the contrast of Northern Ireland and Ireland being similar to Canada and the US in 1780.  The US chose to secede from Britain but Canada chose to remain.  Similarly Ireland rebelled from English rule but the Northern Irish counties chose to remain.  The relationship between NI and Ireland is a lot more abrasive than the relationship between the US and Canada, though.  Maybe it will mellow over time? Don't know

Dave, thanks for the analysis from "inside the action".  We have had very little comment here by actual Brits on this election.
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Bruce Guttman
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« Reply #45 on: Jun 12, 2017, 03:48AM »

Bruce,  I refrained from commenting on the election even on my own social media, the UK still has not really recovered from either the Scottish indy vote or the eu vote....the young really turned out in this election but mainly in support of Corbyn and he did much better than was expected although still lost by 60 seats to the torries...who not only won more seats but got more of the popular vote too!

At the start of the whole process it was about brexit... that switched half way through to the public services etc in labours socialist manifesto that had many points a lot of people would agree with, and Corbyn offering the bribe to the young on tuition fees.

But nice to see our colonial cousins are as confused by our election process as we quite often are with yours!   Good!
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« Reply #46 on: Jun 12, 2017, 08:39AM »

I guess "Mayxit" is the emerging term for this election.



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Robert Holmén

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« Reply #47 on: Jun 12, 2017, 09:10AM »

I look at the contrast of Northern Ireland and Ireland being similar to Canada and the US in 1780.  The US chose to secede from Britain but Canada chose to remain.  Similarly Ireland rebelled from English rule but the Northern Irish counties chose to remain.  The relationship between NI and Ireland is a lot more abrasive than the relationship between the US and Canada, though.  Maybe it will mellow over time? Don't know

Dave, thanks for the analysis from "inside the action".  We have had very little comment here by actual Brits on this election.

There was no Canada in 1780. The British in Upper Canada wanted to remain British, the French in Lower Canada, defeated by the British on the Plains of Abraham in 1763, didn't have much choice, and the natives didn't realize their days as sovereign nations were drawing to a close. I wonder if there was any desire in Lower Canada, ie Quebec, to join the American cause against the British in 1776?
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« Reply #48 on: Jun 12, 2017, 09:15AM »

Here we have two contrasting views on what is possible from Brexit. I think it is near needless to say that I am very much in Robert's camp here. This isn't 1880. We don't own India, to use as a subjugated cash cow to support any jingoistic venture that we might choose. We don't use our military might to bully others into doing things for us. We don't even have much military might these days. This idea of Britannia once again ruling the waves drove all too much Leave-y thinking in the vote - it isn't a possible outcome. We'll come out of the EU negotiations largely with what the rest of the EU specify - they're 7 times the size of us populationwise.

Do you mean Britain won't be great again?
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BillO
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« Reply #49 on: Jun 12, 2017, 10:05AM »

... our colonial cousins ...
Colonial cousins?  Some would see those as fightin' words!
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« Reply #50 on: Jun 12, 2017, 10:28AM »

Do you mean Britain won't be great again?

It's all quite grating. Is that close enough?
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Dave Taylor

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« Reply #51 on: Jun 12, 2017, 09:19PM »

The NY Times briefly cites the unusual disposition of former UKIP voters in this election.

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The nation is divided, but not on traditional party lines. People who had previously voted for the U.K. Independence Party, the right-wing nationalist party that campaigned on the Leave side in the Brexit vote, went all over the place, producing freak results in this general election.

I think this points to the likelihood that a big chunk of "Leave" voters in Brexit had only the dimmest understanding of what they were voting for and no expectation that they'd have to live with their vote.

It's like when people in Texas talk about secession. They don't know what it would really do and they don't have to because it's never going to happen.
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Robert Holmén

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« Reply #52 on: Jun 12, 2017, 10:14PM »

The NY Times briefly cites the unusual disposition of former UKIP voters in this election.

I think this points to the likelihood that a big chunk of "Leave" voters in Brexit had only the dimmest understanding of what they were voting for and no expectation that they'd have to live with their vote.

It's like when people in Texas talk about secession. They don't know what it would really do and they don't have to because it's never going to happen.

That has been levelled by the remain side and is insulting, in some areas the former ukip vote returned to labour because as I said earlier their manifesto supported the Torries  brevity plan and in others it went to the Torries!

People on all sides voted for multiple reasons in this election, but one thing they did not do was vote for the only party that said it would overturn the brevity vote!
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« Reply #53 on: Jun 12, 2017, 10:19PM »

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I think this points to the likelihood that a big chunk of "Leave" voters in Brexit had only the dimmest understanding of what they were voting for and no expectation that they'd have to live with their vote.

I do not think that is correct. Several reports have analysed why the majority of Brits voted for Brexit. One report summarised them as:

"_ _ three main groups; affluent Eurosceptics, the older working class and a smaller group of economically disadvantaged, anti-Immigration voters."

http://natcen.ac.uk/our-research/research/understanding-the-leave-vote/?gclid=CKqw3-WDutQCFRQEKgod9akFfw

There are more detailed reasons in other reports. Do a search for "Why did Britain vote to leave the European Union?" I think you will be surprised.

I left Great Britain in the mid 60s, which was before they joined the EU and I can tell you it was a much better country to live in than nowadays. Frankly they lost their 'greatness' by joining. :( And also missed the opportunity to form a much stronger trading block with the Commonwealth countries.

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Grah

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« Reply #54 on: Jun 12, 2017, 10:42PM »

I watched the results live, streaming from "SkyNews" I think it was.

After every constituency result they put up a graphic that showed the proportion of the vote to each party, and followed that with a graphic showing how each party had gained or lost share since 2015.

And there were indeed constituencies where UKIP's loss was matched by a nearly equal gain for Lib Dem.

That wasn't common. Usually you could see the UKIP loss was benefiting the Conservatives and/or Labour. But there were cases where Lib Dems benefited.

I don't think it's all that impossible.  UKIP was basically a single-issue party and their voters decided it wasn't the most important one anymore and cast their vote on other concerns.

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I left Great Britain in the mid 60s, which was before they joined the EU and I can tell you it was a much better country to live in than nowadays. Frankly they lost their 'greatness' by joining.

I've never lived in Great Britain, but here in the US that "greatness" talk is a magnet for the least-informed, most short-sighted and angriest voters, who gave us the lousy result we have today.
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Robert Holmén

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« Reply #55 on: Jun 13, 2017, 01:01AM »

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I've never lived in Great Britain, but here in the US that "greatness" talk is a magnet for the , who gave us the lousy result we have today.

'Greatness' was a bit of a play on 'Great' Britain. :D However, my age group (think John Lennon) was very much convinced that we could make the country even greater and the world a better place. 

I have lived in the US and I can tell you for certain that there are not too many parallels between the US and UK when it comes to social, economic, education level or political persuasion voter groupings. Certainly in the UK there are very few of the uninformed, short-sighted and angry type voters you speak of and who put Trump into power. I have family and friends in the UK who you would have to call educated middle-class and most of them voted for Brexit. However, my sister and brother-in-law were very strongly against leaving the EU and they were here in Australia visiting during the campaigning for Brexit. They were extremely angry with David Cameron for calling the referendum.

If you want to blame anyone at all for the success of Brexit, blame it on the 28% of people who did not bother to vote.
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Grah

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« Reply #56 on: Jun 13, 2017, 06:19AM »

I left Great Britain in the mid 60s, which was before they joined the EU and I can tell you it was a much better country to live in than nowadays. Frankly they lost their 'greatness' by joining. :( And also missed the opportunity to form a much stronger trading block with the Commonwealth countries.
The entire world is a vastly different place now than it was in the 60's.  There is no way to tell where the UK would be now had they never joined the EU.  Brexit is not going to play out very well.  I cannot imagine the EU making it easy for the UK - in fact, they can't make it easy as doing so would be like admitting that the EU is a bad idea.  It may not have been so bad for the UK if they still had the US as an ally to help ease the pain.  However, the US is no one's ally any longer.
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« Reply #57 on: Jun 13, 2017, 06:57AM »


If you want to blame anyone at all for the success of Brexit, blame it on the 28% of people who did not bother to vote.


Well, that is certainly true, just as it is here. But the blame also falls on the angry old white guys in both countries who were motivated to vote, many of them against their own best interests in both cases.
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« Reply #58 on: Jun 13, 2017, 08:22AM »

Lay off "angry old white guys" Russ.
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« Reply #59 on: Jun 13, 2017, 09:07AM »

When I was a boy, people blamed rock and roll records for the downfall of Western civilization.

Now we blame a common passport and economic zone. (Much of which the UK seems to have been allowed to exclude itself from anyway.)   Don't know
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Robert Holmén

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