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Question: Trump's options?  (Voting closed: Sep 17, 2017, 03:20PM)
Pre-emptive nuclear strike by US - 1 (5%)
Pre-emptive non-nuclear strike by US - 3 (15%)
More tough talk from Trump (bluff) - 3 (15%)
Trade sanctions against China and/or S Korea - 4 (20%)
Relax. This will blow over, not up. - 6 (30%)
No options. - 3 (15%)
Total Voters: 19

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Author Topic: N Korea tests H bomb  (Read 2455 times)
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Ellrod

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« on: Sep 03, 2017, 03:20PM »

On what is possibly the nicest day of the summer - sunny, not too warm - I wake up to read that North Korea has successfully tested an H-bomb 7 times more powerful than the A-bombs that were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Moreover, Un is quickly improving his ICBM capability, such that he is capable of hitting the US.

So, what are Trump's options? His prior bellicosity seems not to have much effect. Indeed, Un has in the past few days fired a missile over Japan and conducted the aforesaid nuclear test. What now?

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« Reply #1 on: Sep 03, 2017, 03:40PM »

As I see it the only way to stop North Korea is to completely isolate it. China appears not to be fair dinkum about the sanctions and must stop supplying oil. I guess we have to remember that North Korea is China's only ally and they do not want to turn them into an adversary, certainly not with their newfound nuclear capability.

Not sure why you included South Korea in the list.

Australian rhetoric against China's lack of action is certainly getting stronger; the problem being that they are our biggest trading partner and our economy would probably collapse without them.

I would like to see Trump's team trying some real diplomacy with North Korea - preferably without Trump himself involved. I really don't trust him any more than I do Kim.
 
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« Reply #2 on: Sep 03, 2017, 03:49PM »

Graham: Trump is talking about ending a trade agreement with S Korea and is complaining about SK "appeasement".
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« Reply #3 on: Sep 03, 2017, 03:57PM »

I don't see any good options.  We can turn North Korea into a radioactive pit that will remain uninhabitable as long as Fukushima but I don't think that will help -- China and Russia will feel compelled to retaliate.  We can't convince China to rein them in.  I would think the only possibility is subversion, but it's hard to infiltrate the North.
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« Reply #4 on: Sep 03, 2017, 04:07PM »

If you think them having H-bombs and ICBMs is troubling, imagine when they have impossible-to-track submarines to launch them from anywhere on the globe.

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« Reply #5 on: Sep 03, 2017, 06:47PM »


Australian rhetoric against China's lack of action is certainly getting stronger; the problem being that they are our biggest trading partner and our economy would probably collapse without them.
 

Remember, that's a two-way need. They need you too. A trade war would be bad for everyone but seriously bad for China internally.

Has post-Mao China ever just cut someone off?  Don't know 

I don't think they've ever done a political revenge trade embargo against a country or anything like the OPEC oil embargo of the 70s. (unless you count the current UN sanctions against N Korea)

Someone correct me if I'm wrong.  Don't know
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« Reply #6 on: Sep 04, 2017, 07:27AM »

The big problem with military intervention of any sort is the fact that China needs NK as a buffer zone against the west. If we start sending in missile strikes, things could escalate very very quickly.

Something has to be done, but it is very dicey. The best scenario would be if somehow, someone assassinates that lunatic (the Korean one, not Trump lol)
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« Reply #7 on: Sep 04, 2017, 09:12AM »

The NYT notes that this test happened just hours before a significant international meeting in China and that perhaps the test is more about China than the US.

Quote
The confluence of North Korea’s nuclear testing and Mr. Xi’s important public appearances is not a coincidence, analysts said. It is intended to show that Mr. Kim, the leader of a small, rogue neighboring state, can diminish Mr. Xi’s power and prestige as president of China, they said. In fact, some analysts contended that the latest test may have been primarily aimed at pressuring Mr. Xi, not President Trump.

“Kim knows that Xi has the real power to affect the calculus in Washington,” said Peter Hayes, the director of the Nautilus Institute, a research group that specializes in North Korea. “He’s putting pressure on China to say to Trump: ‘You have to sit down with Kim Jong-un.’”

What Mr. Kim wants most, Mr. Hayes said, is talks with Washington that the North Korean leader hopes will result in a deal to reduce American troops in South Korea and leave him with nuclear weapons. And in Mr. Kim’s calculation, China has the influence to make that negotiation happen.


The paradox I sense in all this is that if the US did some sort of regime-change/regime-end strike in NK the workd would be all angry and upset, but if China did it they'd all go, "YES! It's about time!"


But China won't do that. It would be a lot of work just to make the US happier and China doesn't really need that.


Quote
While some Chinese analysts say North Korea should be made to pay a price for its contempt of China, the North’s ally and major trading partner, they were not optimistic that Sunday’s test would change Mr. Xi’s determination to remain above the fray and not get his hands sullied trying to force Mr. Kim to change his ways.

Even the North’s claim that the weapon detonated was a hydrogen bomb that could be mounted on an intercontinental ballistic missile would probably not sway Mr. Xi, they said.

“This sixth nuclear test should force China to do something radical; this will be a political test,” said Cheng Xiaohe, a nuclear expert at Renmin University. “But the mood is not moving that way.”
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« Reply #8 on: Sep 04, 2017, 09:39AM »

NK Is China's puppet. Instead of China threatening its enemies with nukes, it uses NK to do its dirty work, and then claim innocent while it states how awful NK is. Good cop/Bad cop routine in its foreign national affairs.

First off, destroy China's puppet.

Any body that still thinks appeasement works is ...................
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« Reply #9 on: Sep 04, 2017, 09:41AM »

It's difficult to see China's options. Economic sanctions would starve the DPRK population which, by some accounts, is already starving. Kim Jong-un seems unaffected. If one takes the long view, it is in China's interest to remain on good terms with the DPRK. Who needs angry neighbours? In the long run, it is best to be perceived as a friend, protecting the DPRK from its enemies, than an enemy.

As for China's ongoing dealings with the US, well, with all the talk about the debt ceiling and default, one might ask "Who holds the paper?" i.e. who does the US borrow from? I'm not sure Trump can count on stiffing his creditors, in this case the Chinese, by declaring bankruptcy this time.
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« Reply #10 on: Sep 04, 2017, 09:49AM »

NK Is China's puppet. Instead of China threatening its enemies with nukes, it uses NK to do its dirty work, and then claim innocent while it states how awful NK is. Good cop/Bad cop routine in its foreign national affairs.

First off, destroy China's puppet.

Any body that still thinks appeasement works is ...................

Dusty, do you really consider the destruction of NK to be a viable option, in light of the retaliations that would be provoked?
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« Reply #11 on: Sep 04, 2017, 09:53AM »

NK Is China's puppet. Instead of China threatening its enemies with nukes, it uses NK to do its dirty work, and then claim innocent while it states how awful NK is. Good cop/Bad cop routine in its foreign national affairs.

First off, destroy China's puppet.

Any body that still thinks appeasement works is ...................

Follow up question:

Do you consider anything short of armed conflict to be appeasement?
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« Reply #12 on: Sep 04, 2017, 09:59AM »

"First off, destroy China's puppet."

Pretty tough talk from the River Point Church Praise and Worship (or is that "Warship") Band.

By the way, China is as likely to allow the US (or its "puppets") to invade the DPRK as the US was to allow Russia to put nukes in Cuba, for pretty much the same reason.
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« Reply #13 on: Sep 04, 2017, 11:02AM »

I'll note that while China is the largest foreign holder of US debt, it's still less than 9%.

The largest holder of US debt, about a third of it, is... the US government! In the form of the Social Security Administration and other Federal Retirement funds plus various agencies that have some reason to hold US debt.


The debt probably isn't a serious foreign policy tool for either the US or China. There is no way to just default on the Chinese-held debt. A default would affect all holders, largely US citizens (Social Security) and corporations. Meanwhile China doesn't need the money for something right now.  That's why they bought it.

There isn't a practical way for China to just stop buying it and sell it off quickly.  They bought it because they wanted a safe place to put their extra money.  There aren't other good places to put it. They tried gold and gave up.

If they did try to sell it off suddenly... 9% is a lot to dump on the market but I don't doubt there would be buyers to soak it up and bring the market back to normal eventually.


The debt is a dance that US and China are stuck in and will continue for both's sake.

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« Reply #14 on: Sep 04, 2017, 11:51AM »

Then why the concern over raising the debt ceiling?

It seems that the gov't borrowing from social security is like a company borrowing from the employee's pension plan.
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« Reply #15 on: Sep 04, 2017, 12:02PM »

For the sake of discussion…

The only way the US gets involved in a shooting war is if DPNK decides to attack Japan, South Korea, or a US Territory.  We will only retaliate with conventional weapons. 

Their “navy” is a joke, and in an hour the US subs that are already in the area will make ALL of their subs disappear.  US bombers and cruise missiles will destroy their offensive missile capability at the same time.  Their army will try to surge across into South Korea, but the USAF and South Korean military will take care of that very quickly.  (Can you say, “A-10”???)  The DPNK Air Force will not make it into the air.  Very quickly after the shooting starts most of their army will realize how deeply over their heads they are and quit. 

Within 6 hours we will have denied them the ability to fight in the air or on the water, disrupted ALL communications amongst their leaders, and as a final kick in the balls, given their citizen’s access to the Internet without filter.  Remember Baghdad????  This will take one night.

The DPNK knows all of this.  They are crazy, but not stupid.   

Russian will not get involved directly, unless we use nuclear weapons, which we won't and don't need to do.  If Russia does make a military move, remember, they have the economic capability of sustaining war for about 20 minutes.  They are not an issue.

China will rattle the sabre, but will not get involved.  There is no win for them militarily or economically.   They know the DPNK is a loose cannon and in then end know that a united Korea is much easier to deal with than the current regime.  Their world domination play is economic, not military.   

After all this, I still think diplomacy is the way to go.  Unless they shoot a nuke that hits land anywhere, the military solution is a lose-lose for the US.  Everybody knows what the DPNK is, nobody truly thinks they have the capability to launch and successfully strike anything.  I say, let the UN sanction them into the ground, give them unfiltered Internet and let the DPNK people revolt and overthrow the government.  Isolate them economically and show their people what they have been missing and this is over. 

DD
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« Reply #16 on: Sep 04, 2017, 12:15PM »

"Remember Baghdad????  This will take one night."

And how is that working out?

I suppose China might allow the US to orchestrate a non-nuclear attack on the DPRK. South Korea could clean up the mess, but it would likely require hundreds of millions of dollars of aid from the US. Maybe this would play out like the unification of East and West Germany. Actually, this sounds like a pretty reasonable solution, if you can get buy-in from China and SK - except I recall Bush talking about the US "liberating" Iraq.
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« Reply #17 on: Sep 04, 2017, 12:34PM »

Then why the concern over raising the debt ceiling?

Because the government spends more than it collects in taxes and more debt must be issued to pay for it while also paying off the old debt that has matured and accrued interest.  If you don't raise the debt ceiling (the total that can be borrowed) then you start defaulting on bonds that have come due.

Basically we are refinancing old debt with more new debt. With the current near-zero interest rates, lots of older high interest rate debt has been refinanced at lower rates so that cost of servicing this debt has not created the alarm that it did in the 80s and 90s.



Quote
It seems that the gov't borrowing from social security is like a company borrowing from the employee's pension plan.

It does sound that way, but it is really a reasonably  advantageous situation for a nation to have.

If Joe Worker has to pay more taxes to cover the debt to Social Security and other US citizens, at least that money goes back into the US economy , buying things and creating demand that creates jobs for... Joe Worker! Money that we pay to pay off debt to foreign borrowers is mostly just gone and drains wealth out of the US.

On the other hand, when a company pays back what it owes to an employee retirement fund not much of that money circles back to help the company.  It's not much better than US debt owed to "foreigners".

Lots of countries issue debt, but most have to sell it to foreigners because few in their own country have the money to buy it. When they pay off the debt, it's like throwing money away.

Not so for the US. The US is fortunate to have citizens, retirement funds, and business within it's own economy to buy  most of the debt and take repayment when it comes due.

We'd be more fortunate to have citizens who would pay the taxes needed up front so we didn't need to issue debt, but that's another story.
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« Reply #18 on: Sep 04, 2017, 12:48PM »

"Remember Baghdad????  This will take one night."

And how is that working out?

I suppose China might allow the US to orchestrate a non-nuclear attack on the DPRK. South Korea could clean up the mess, but it would likely require hundreds of millions of dollars of aid from the US. Maybe this would play out like the unification of East and West Germany.

I was only speaking to the actual combat the night we went in.  The Middle East is a debacle and has been since forever.  I did not mean to confuse the situation. 
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« Reply #19 on: Sep 04, 2017, 12:52PM »

Refinancing existing debt at lower rates is sensible. Taking advantage of lower rates and increasing the amount of debt - a little more dubious.

Raising taxes on Joe Worker appears not to be an option, in election years at least. Of course, we know the two certainties of life.
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« Reply #20 on: Sep 04, 2017, 12:57PM »

How about sanctions other than food and medicine? The NK regime has the population convinced that everything bad is our fault.  If starving, they will not blame him, they will blame us.  If they aren't hungry, they can't hate us for starving their kids.  If the average citizen is fed and has access to medicine, maybe their frustration would be directed in the right direction - the regime that denies them freedom of thought, speech, etc.
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« Reply #21 on: Sep 04, 2017, 02:00PM »

Follow up question:

Do you consider anything short of armed conflict to be appeasement?

Consider this:

A guys comes up to you and pulls a gun and points it at you and says that he is going to shoot your wife. You don't do anything at first, so he says it again, then shoots a couple rounds over your head. Then points the gun back at you. You still don't do anything, then he shoots a couple of rounds at your feet.

You have a gun hidden. What are your options?

We have tried appeasement for over 24 years. What do you want to do? Sing "How long?"

We know that NK is China's puppet, so China will never help us out.

Right now, and it may be too late, but I would have our military shoot down every missile that they "test". We could call it 'testing' as well. They test their offensive missiles, and we test our defensive missiles. Right now, when we test our defensive missiles, we know when the missiles are shot up, so it's not a real test.

If we get used to them shooting their missiles as a test, how are we going to know when it isn't a test? The delay in making that decision would probably be too late. 

Re: Ellrod's question: Being a Christian doesn't mean being suicidal.

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« Reply #22 on: Sep 04, 2017, 02:29PM »

It's all easy when you present the facts dishonestly. You don't have to account for all the stuff that won't work.
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« Reply #23 on: Sep 04, 2017, 04:45PM »

It's all easy when you present the facts dishonestly. You don't have to account for all the stuff that won't work.

Corollary:
It's still lying even if you convince yourself of the lie first (which includes intellectual negligence/irresponsibility, or in other words the failure to apply honesty in your thinking).
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« Reply #24 on: Sep 04, 2017, 04:49PM »

Then why the concern over raising the debt ceiling?

It seems that the gov't borrowing from social security is like a company borrowing from the employee's pension plan.

The concern over the debt ceiling is a red herring.  The Republicans started that nonsense quite a while back (under Nixon, I think).  It's a way to politicize the budget even more than  it already is.
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« Reply #25 on: Sep 04, 2017, 05:54PM »

Consider this:

A guys comes up to you and pulls a gun and points it at you and says that he is going to shoot your wife. You don't do anything at first, so he says it again, then shoots a couple rounds over your head. Then points the gun back at you. You still don't do anything, then he shoots a couple of rounds at your feet.

You have a gun hidden. What are your options?

We have tried appeasement for over 24 years. What do you want to do? Sing "How long?"

We know that NK is China's puppet, so China will never help us out.

Right now, and it may be too late, but I would have our military shoot down every missile that they "test". We could call it 'testing' as well. They test their offensive missiles, and we test our defensive missiles. Right now, when we test our defensive missiles, we know when the missiles are shot up, so it's not a real test.

If we get used to them shooting their missiles as a test, how are we going to know when it isn't a test? The delay in making that decision would probably be too late. 

Re: Ellrod's question: Being a Christian doesn't mean being suicidal.


LOL NOPE.

How many tens of thousands die in the first conventional response on Seoul?  You can hit Seoul with a mortar from NK.

Y'all think the NK will just roll over?  They would be soundly defeated, but in the same way that a cornered skunk responds to a pack of dogs.  Only this skunk has nukes.

Cheers,
Andy
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« Reply #26 on: Sep 04, 2017, 06:48PM »

Why is it that China and Russia are pushing a joint proposal for a return to dialogue, between UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres and North Korea, aiming at joint suspension of North Korea's weapons programs and the military exercises by the US and South Korea? Why do they think this would achieve anything and what's in it for them? 
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« Reply #27 on: Sep 04, 2017, 06:57PM »

I suppose there would be no need for the DPRK to build nukes if there was no threat from the US and its puppet, the ROK.

The US is unlikely to accept a diminished role in SE Asia however.
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« Reply #28 on: Sep 04, 2017, 07:25PM »

what's in it for them? 

China would love to have the US out of there. And neither is interested in further sanctions.
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« Reply #29 on: Sep 04, 2017, 07:28PM »

...
The US is unlikely to accept a diminished role in SE Asia however.

Point of Pedantry: Korea is not in Southeast Asia.  It's in East Asia.  It's north of Japan.
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« Reply #30 on: Sep 04, 2017, 08:56PM »

NK Is China's puppet. Instead of China threatening its enemies with nukes, it uses NK to do its dirty work, and then claim innocent while it states how awful NK is. Good cop/Bad cop routine in its foreign national affairs.

NK is not China's puppet.

First off, destroy China's puppet.
Initiating a preemptive attack to 'take them out' would be foolish. China will not stand idly by and allow their buffer to be taken out.

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« Reply #31 on: Sep 04, 2017, 10:20PM »

It would take the DPRK a few minutes to kill hundreds of thousands of people in the PRK. There are 10M people in Seoul. It's only 120 miles from Pyongyang to Seoul.
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« Reply #32 on: Sep 05, 2017, 05:03AM »

There are not many people on the planet I detest more than Steve Bannon, but in true "broken clock/ Blind squirrel" manner he hit the nail squarely on the head. "There’s no military solution [to North Korea’s nuclear threats], forget it. Until somebody solves the part of the equation that shows me that ten million people in Seoul don’t die in the first 30 minutes from conventional weapons, I don’t know what you’re talking about, there’s no military solution here, they got us." Indeed.

I truly wish more people had the intellectual capacity to understand the basic etymological difference between "appeasement" and "containment" or "deterrence". Like so many small minded, ignorant people on the right they parrot the "appeasement" argument with NO understanding of what the crap they are actually talking about.

Dusty's "neighbor with a gun" argument is actually pretty close to the reality of what has gone on in the world since the end of hostilities in Korea in 1953, but he has got it 100% ass-backwards. Since the end of the Korean War the DPNK has had exactly ZERO military interventions of any kind anywhere in the world other than right on their own border, and even those have been quite limited. THe USA, on the other hand, has had at least one, usually multiple, military intervention going on somewhere in the world in every year, with the exception of the Carter Administration, since.

THe is litle doubt that Kim-Jung-Un is a paranoid narcissist (One of two involved in this story), but just because someone is paranoid doesn't mean people aren't out to get them. Drumpf worries me far more than Un does. Un is only concerned about his own survival, and 60+ years have shown the DPNK is not a military aggressor. Drumpf is a psychotic narcissist in desperate need of a victory, any victory, and is not smart enough to understand the consequences of many of his actions. One can only hop ethe adults, Mattis, Tillerson, and Kelly, can keep a lid on the true mad man in this equation.

Hey, I think I just wrote this weeks column! Thanks, guys. Look for this in the other thread in just a few minutes.
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« Reply #33 on: Sep 05, 2017, 05:33AM »

I truly wish more people had the intellectual capacity to understand the basic etymological difference between "appeasement" and "containment" or "deterrence". Like so many small minded, ignorant people on the right they parrot the "appeasement" argument with NO understanding of what the crap they are actually talking about.

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« Reply #34 on: Sep 05, 2017, 05:43AM »

There are not many people on the planet I detest more than Steve Bannon, but in true "broken clock/ Blind squirrel" manner he hit the nail squarely on the head. "There’s no military solution [to North Korea’s nuclear threats], forget it. Until somebody solves the part of the equation that shows me that ten million people in Seoul don’t die in the first 30 minutes from conventional weapons, I don’t know what you’re talking about, there’s no military solution here, they got us." Indeed.

I truly wish more people had the intellectual capacity to understand the basic etymological difference between "appeasement" and "containment" or "deterrence". Like so many small minded, ignorant people on the right they parrot the "appeasement" argument with NO understanding of what the crap they are actually talking about.

Dusty's "neighbor with a gun" argument is actually pretty close to the reality of what has gone on in the world since the end of hostilities in Korea in 1953, but he has got it 100% ass-backwards. Since the end of the Korean War the DPNK has had exactly ZERO military interventions of any kind anywhere in the world other than right on their own border, and even those have been quite limited. THe USA, on the other hand, has had at least one, usually multiple, military intervention going on somewhere in the world in every year, with the exception of the Carter Administration, since.

THe is litle doubt that Kim-Jung-Un is a paranoid narcissist (One of two involved in this story), but just because someone is paranoid doesn't mean people aren't out to get them. Drumpf worries me far more than Un does. Un is only concerned about his own survival, and 60+ years have shown the DPNK is not a military aggressor. Drumpf is a psychotic narcissist in desperate need of a victory, any victory, and is not smart enough to understand the consequences of many of his actions. One can only hop ethe adults, Mattis, Tillerson, and Kelly, can keep a lid on the true mad man in this equation.

Hey, I think I just wrote this weeks column! Thanks, guys. Look for this in the other thread in just a few minutes.

So Russ, you think that NK is successfully contained?
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« Reply #35 on: Sep 05, 2017, 06:40AM »

They have been for over 60 years.
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« Reply #36 on: Sep 05, 2017, 07:02AM »

They have been for over 60 years.


Are you being serious?
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« Reply #37 on: Sep 05, 2017, 07:17AM »

Are you being intentionally dense? What aggressive ACT, not talk and bluster, have they taken against any nation since the end of hostilities on 1953?
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« Reply #38 on: Sep 05, 2017, 07:37AM »

Are you being intentionally dense? What aggressive ACT, not talk and bluster, have they taken against any nation since the end of hostilities on 1953?


I think that you're the one being dense. Are you willing to sit around until NK drops a nuke on Florida?
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« Reply #39 on: Sep 05, 2017, 08:09AM »

I think that you're the one being dense. Are you willing to sit around until NK drops a nuke on Florida?

Given the level of North Korea's guidance systems, I'd bet that if they aimed for Florida they'd hit Houston.

But they don't have a missile with that range.  Right now they might easily hit Alaska (maybe Sarah Palin's house?) or the US Northwest Coast.

But Russ does have a point.  North Korea is pretty much isolated from eveybody except China, Russia, and a couple of Southeast Asian nations like Viet-Nam.

South Korea at the time of the Korean War was a muddy backwater but they are now a strong economic power and can probably deal with an attack much better.  On the other hand, the Kims have turned North Korea into a starving country held down by the military and the Secret Police.  It is the country Orwell's 1984 warned us about.
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« Reply #40 on: Sep 05, 2017, 08:09AM »

I think we can take that as an admission that DD can't actually point to an aggressive act by NK since 1953.


I can think of a few.  They killed US border guard in the 90s.  They sank a SK military boat in international waters in the 2000s.

But those aren't nuke-em-back things on any sane level.
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« Reply #41 on: Sep 05, 2017, 08:14AM »

To add to your list there's the USS Pueblo incident.  They boarded an intelligence ship in International Waters and took its crew prisoners.  Again, not a "nuke 'em back" incident.
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« Reply #42 on: Sep 05, 2017, 08:20AM »

I think we can take that as an admission that DD can't actually point to an aggressive act by NK since 1953.


I can think of a few.  They killed US border guard in the 90s.  They sank a SK military boat in international waters in the 2000s.

But those aren't nuke-em-back things on any sane level.

You can take that as, I consider that totally irrelevant to what the issue is today. To me, that's changing the subject.

The question becomes "do you want to wait until NK nukes our country?" to change your mind that containment theory is enough to protect our citizens? The problem with that strategy is the same as waiting until the stalker kills their prey to take action.


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« Reply #43 on: Sep 05, 2017, 08:46AM »

Our moral superiority in all this would be more superior if we hadn't rushed into that war in Iraq.

Not only did George Bush waste the world's good will and support on his delusion, but he ended up showing our enemies all of our weaknesses for them to exploit in future conflicts.

The stalker analogy is another misleading one. Stalkers leave their house to follow you around. NK has been sitting tight and digging in.
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« Reply #44 on: Sep 05, 2017, 08:56AM »

I think that you're the one being dense. Are you willing to sit around until NK drops a nuke on Florida?

Once more you choose to not answer a direct question. You obfuscate by asking another question. Kind of like when Kellyanne is on the hot seat.
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« Reply #45 on: Sep 05, 2017, 08:59AM »


The question becomes "do you want to wait until NK nukes our country?" to change your mind that containment theory is enough to protect our citizens? The problem with that strategy is the same as waiting until the stalker kills their prey to take action.


I know my neighbor has a minor arsenal in his home, and he has an NRA sticker on his truck. Should I wait for him to shoot at me, or should I go kill him now just in case?
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« Reply #46 on: Sep 05, 2017, 09:02AM »


The stalker analogy is another misleading one. Stalkers leave their house to follow you around. NK has been sitting tight and digging in.

Good point.

It is like hornet nests. If you poke sticks at it, you'll stir them up and bad things will happen.

I imagine if a hostile nation was doing naval maneuvers in the Gulf of Mexico, we would feel threatened, and we certainly wouldn't stand for it.

I am not defending the madman in NK. I am just saying that if you antagonize a crazy man, no good will come of it. Isolationism seems to me to have been the right way to deal with him.

Talking smack (like Trump has done) is NOT the wise approach. I agree with Russ. We have our own mad man: 45
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« Reply #47 on: Sep 05, 2017, 09:34AM »

A nuclear DPRK will be contained the same way other hostile nuclear-capable countries (Russia, Iran) are: mutual assured destruction.

On the other hand, Kim Jong-Un is a despot in a small starving country. What has he got to gain by taking on the US? Maybe he'd like to annex PRK. Perhaps he can cow Moon into surrender, but that seems extremely unlikely.

More likely, he can impress his generals (he likely needs their support) and can leverage some concessions from the West using the nuclear threat. China (and Russia) would stand to benefit from a withdrawal of US forces from East Asia. Who do you think is supplying the materials and technology for his missiles and nuclear bombs?

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« Reply #48 on: Sep 05, 2017, 09:38AM »

I know my neighbor has a minor arsenal in his home, and he has an NRA sticker on his truck. Should I wait for him to shoot at me, or should I go kill him now just in case?

Does he threaten you daily and shoot target practice across your back yard? Probably he comes over to your house, drink beer, and watch football with you.
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« Reply #49 on: Sep 05, 2017, 09:39AM »

Does he threaten you daily and shoot target practice across your back yard? Probably he comes over to your house, drink beer, and watch football with you.

Reductio ad absurdum. Unlikely to be useful.

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« Reply #50 on: Sep 05, 2017, 09:42AM »

The problem is, we are in HIS back yard.

Dusty, once again you don't get it. While - I repeat - I am not defending the lunatic, but we are right on his doorstep. He is batshit crazy and Trump is antagonizing him.
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« Reply #51 on: Sep 05, 2017, 09:43AM »

You can take that as, I consider that totally irrelevant to what the issue is today. To me, that's changing the subject.

That's only because you don't know how to question presumptions or personal sentiments, so to you the only subject here is How soon can we hit them, with what, and how hard? Anything not overtly and directly related seems as if it's a different issue entirely, even if it's The Real Issue™.
 
 ... or of course because you're trolling for lulz with this comically exaggerated persona.
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« Reply #52 on: Sep 05, 2017, 10:07AM »

Verbal handball is an amusing hobby for some people.
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« Reply #53 on: Sep 05, 2017, 10:38AM »

Does he threaten you daily and shoot target practice across your back yard? Probably he comes over to your house, drink beer, and watch football with you.

No, but he has killed off a bunch of people in other neighborhoods, and he has family members living in other neighbors houses. Switching perspectives a bit here, As I said in a previous post, Un is a paranoid narcissist, but his paranoia is grounded in reality. People really ARE out to get him.
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« Reply #54 on: Sep 05, 2017, 12:28PM »

While not as capable as ours, NK does have a large army.

Quote
The size of the the Korean People's Army [KPA] is a source of controversy. By late 2015 a number of scholars both in South Korea and other countries concluded that the North Korean army was composed of around 700,000 soldiers. This is 500,000 fewer than the South Korean government’s official estimate of 1.2 million soldiers. The DPRK's Reserve Military Training Unit [RMTU] consists of about 600,000 members, and upon reflection it seems that the organization, training and equipment ofthis formation are not substantially inferior to the North's regular forces, and so now it is counted here. South Korea has a large mobilization individual reserve force, but it is more a force of desperate last resort than the sort of routinely deployable force like the US Army Guard and Reserve [or the DPRK's RMTU]. Even though the ROK army is less than half the size of the KPA, it has higher overall combat effectivness.

From globalsecurity.

You've read the Orphan Master's Son, right?

https://www.amazon.com/Orphan-Masters-Son-Pulitzer-Fiction/dp/0812982622

It's fiction, but gives some insight into the problem. 
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« Reply #55 on: Sep 05, 2017, 12:39PM »

A nuclear DPRK will be contained the same way other hostile nuclear-capable countries (Russia, Iran) are: mutual assured destruction.

On the other hand, Kim Jong-Un is a despot in a small starving country. What has he got to gain by taking on the US? Maybe he'd like to annex PRK. Perhaps he can cow Moon into surrender, but that seems extremely unlikely.

More likely, he can impress his generals (he likely needs their support) and can leverage some concessions from the West using the nuclear threat. China (and Russia) would stand to benefit from a withdrawal of US forces from East Asia. Who do you think is supplying the materials and technology for his missiles and nuclear bombs?


Well, some sources are noting what he learned from Iraq/Libya.  Iraq we went in and took out the guy without nukes.  In Libya, they gave up nukes in 2003.  Then when there was a whif of an uprising, we bombed them.  Then the ruler was killed by his own people.

We teach lessons whether we want to or not.

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« Reply #56 on: Sep 05, 2017, 12:45PM »

If Iraq had nuclear capability in 2003, would Israel exist today?
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« Reply #57 on: Sep 05, 2017, 01:05PM »

If Iraq had nuclear capability in 2003, would Israel exist today?

Would Iraq?
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« Reply #58 on: Sep 05, 2017, 01:49PM »

If Iraq had nuclear capability in 2003, would Israel exist today?

Would Iraq?


And I'll note that sworn enemies, India and Pakistan, both with very loud-mouthed governments, both have nuclear capability and both still exist today.


Having the nukes and having any practical use for them are not the same.
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« Reply #59 on: Sep 05, 2017, 02:23PM »

Would Iraq?


Does it now?


And I'll note that sworn enemies, India and Pakistan, both with very loud-mouthed governments, both have nuclear capability and both still exist today.


Pakistan wouldn't sell nuclear technology to Kim would it? Isn't Pakistan our ally?
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« Reply #60 on: Sep 05, 2017, 03:45PM »

I do not know what help it will be, but our PM Malcolm Turnbull and Trump will discuss the North Korean threat over the phone this morning. Also our Defence Minister Marise Payne will leave for Seoul today to meet with South Korean leaders. It seems that whatever happens between the US and North Korea, Australia will be deeply involved - a fact already noted by Kim in his comments about Turnbull.
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« Reply #61 on: Sep 05, 2017, 04:45PM »

Let's have a cheap solution:

We should start a massive psy-ops campaign:

Offer $50 million in cash to whomever takes out the Fat Boy. $100 million in cash to whomever (can be more than one person to share the pot) dismantles their nuclear program.

Value's can be adjusted! Mercenaries?!

Hell...What did Obama transfer to Iran?

Ya Think that is going to work out over the years?

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« Reply #62 on: Sep 05, 2017, 05:14PM »

Let's have a cheap solution:

We should start a massive psy-ops campaign:

Offer $50 million in cash to whomever takes out the Fat Boy. $100 million in cash to whomever (can be more than one person to share the pot) dismantles their nuclear program.

Value's can be adjusted! Mercenaries?!

---- Evil

Except, I don't think Kim Jong Un is really in charge. He is just a convenient figurehead for the military chiefs. Evil
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« Reply #63 on: Sep 05, 2017, 06:09PM »

The dude is so paranoid, odds are he has standing orders that if he is taken out by an assassin, air strike, angry mob, infected hangnail, or whatever, the nukes all get launched and they let loose all the artillery on the border on Seoul.  Nobody wins in that case.
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« Reply #64 on: Sep 06, 2017, 04:39AM »

When he said "the Fat Boy" I thought he meant Drumpf.
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« Reply #65 on: Sep 06, 2017, 01:38PM »

Who do you think is supplying the materials and technology for his missiles and nuclear bombs?


Pakistan is a more likely source than either Russia or China.  There was significant cooperation between Iran and North Korea for a time, but this appears to have ended.
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« Reply #66 on: Sep 06, 2017, 01:42PM »

Pakistan is a more likely source than either Russia or China.  There was significant cooperation between Iran and North Korea for a time, but this appears to have ended.

Ended as part of the deal negotiated by the Obama administration?
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« Reply #67 on: Sep 06, 2017, 01:53PM »

 :D
When he said "the Fat Boy" I thought he meant Drumpf.
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« Reply #68 on: Sep 06, 2017, 02:31PM »

The missile rocket engine technology is almost certainly from Ukraine, home of a former Soviet rocket engine factory. The recent pictures of the engines shown by NK match exactly the engines made in Ukraine.

As a part of destabilizing Ukraine the Russians stopped buying engines from that factory, leaving them out of work and broke.  It is believed that experts helped NK build such engines from their plans or possibly shipped engines already-built to NK.
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« Reply #69 on: Sep 06, 2017, 02:37PM »

Wonder how long it will be before the North Korean tests are blamed for our bad weather Evil
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« Reply #70 on: Sep 06, 2017, 03:36PM »

Isn't the Ukraine one of our allies?

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« Reply #71 on: Sep 06, 2017, 03:48PM »

If the recent conversation between our PM Turnbull and Trump only resulted in the assurance that we were both looking after each other's backs, how come Turnbull is now considering plans to evacuate Australians from the Korean Peninsula as threats from North Korea escalate. :-0 He's urged Australians in the region to register their details.

Albeit he also said that he has confidence the global community can bring the rogue nation "to its sense", provided tougher sanctions are put in place and China uses its economic influence.

Turnbull also said a few minutes ago in TV that, "An attack on the United States or its allies by North Korea would be met with overwhelming force, as president Donald Trump asset and the defence secretary, it would be a suicide note from North Korea. Thousands would die. It would be unmitigated catastrophe."
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« Reply #72 on: Sep 06, 2017, 05:25PM »

More than thousands, Grah.
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« Reply #73 on: Sep 06, 2017, 05:45PM »

Agreed. What Turnbull said in the interview I heard was:

“The North Korean regime is threatening the peace of the region in a manner that runs the risk of disturbing the world order, putting thousands and millions of lives at risk.”
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« Reply #74 on: Sep 06, 2017, 06:24PM »

Isn't the Ukraine one of our allies?

They're not part of NATO or the EU nor do we have any sort of a mutual defense treaty with them. They're just not aligned with Russia for now.

Ukraine is one step from being a failed state. The government is preoccupied with the Russian land grab and they're all corrupt anyway.
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« Reply #75 on: Sep 07, 2017, 04:54AM »

All of the DPRK's belligerence is akin to one of those birds or lizards that puffs up really scary looking foliage when threatened, but have no real defenses against a predator. Us is not the mad man I am concerned about.
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Better than yesterday, better yet tomorrow.
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