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Author Topic: Shutdown?  (Read 355 times)
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B0B
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« on: Dec 21, 2017, 08:32AM »

Looks like there are a lot of contentious issues on the budget plate at the moment. The current spending resolution expires Friday night. They may or may not short term punt to Jan, like they did the last time. Any guesses of if we go through another govt shutdown in the next month or two as a result?
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Russ White

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« Reply #1 on: Dec 21, 2017, 11:00AM »

Probably not this week, but I wouldn't make a bet against it in Jan. There are a ton of issues the Pubs are not going to be able to resolve amongst themselvesl.
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« Reply #2 on: Dec 21, 2017, 11:46AM »

Probably not this week, but I wouldn't make a bet against it in Jan. There are a ton of issues the Pubs are not going to be able to resolve amongst themselvesl.

This is the problem.  We effectively have two Republican parties: one is the right-of-center group we have had since forever, and one is the TEA Party fanatics.  The fanatics would shut down the government to support their principles.  The Democrats need only stand on the sidelines and watch the fireworks.

Kick the can down the road this week and again in January.  And again in February, with a Continuing Resolution to cover the period of the Election.
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« Reply #3 on: Dec 21, 2017, 11:53AM »

This is the problem.  We effectively have two Republican parties: one is the right-of-center group we have had since forever, and one is the TEA Party fanatics.  The fanatics would shut down the government to support their principles.  The Democrats need only stand on the sidelines and watch the fireworks.

Kick the can down the road this week and again in January.  And again in February, with a Continuing Resolution to cover the period of the Election.

Well, you're right. There are two republican parties. You have the establishment repubs that are liberal like the democrats, then you have what Bruce calls the Tea Party which are not fanatics, but conservatives. I think that what we have now, the Freedom Caucus, is the new name for TEA party. I may be wrong.

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« Reply #4 on: Dec 26, 2017, 07:25AM »

This is the problem.  We effectively have two Republican parties: one is the right-of-center group we have had since forever, and one is the TEA Party fanatics.  The fanatics would shut down the government to support their principles.  The Democrats need only stand on the sidelines and watch the fireworks.

Kick the can down the road this week and again in January.  And again in February, with a Continuing Resolution to cover the period of the Election.

Looks like they kicked the can to Jan, but don't know how much further they can kick it. There are some serious and substantive issues that the dems want addressed, such as the dreamers, and that's a big chance for them to get it. At the same time, now that the Obamacare mandate is off the table, the GOP owns healthcare, and they need to do something to stabilize it after they have damaged it.

And then there's just the folks who are sick to death of a decade of CRs, and actually want to adjust funding levels. Given the dysfunction in the GOP caucus, and their insistence on very partisan bills... I would be rather surprised if they DIDN'T shutdown in Jan/Feb.
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« Reply #5 on: Jan 19, 2018, 05:34AM »

And here we go again...

What's on the table? the 4th short term extension. Really people? If they know they can't function enough to change anything, much less get a budget, then it's time to accept it and extend the CR for the full year... just like the past years.

Meanwhile, the GOP is holding CHIP and DACA as bargaining chips... except they are largely for those things too.

Dems want to force the issue, and they have no other place to, and even some GOPers are saying the fiscal short term management BS is, well, BS.
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Russ White

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« Reply #6 on: Jan 19, 2018, 06:33AM »

Well, you're right. There are two republican parties. You have the establishment repubs that are liberal like the democrats, then you have what Bruce calls the Tea Party which are not fanatics, but conservatives. I think that what we have now, the Freedom Caucus, is the new name for TEA party. I may be wrong.



Aside from the asininity of the "You have the establishment repubs that are liberal like the democrats" claim, you are unclear of your terms. THe Freedom Caucus is the Congressional wing of the TEA party. They are NOT conservative. They are over the edge reactionary. THey are, indeed, fanatics. In many cases, they are the American Taliban.
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« Reply #7 on: Jan 19, 2018, 06:58AM »

Well, you're right. There are two republican parties. You have the establishment repubs that are liberal like the democrats, then you have what Bruce calls the Tea Party which are not fanatics, but conservatives. I think that what we have now, the Freedom Caucus, is the new name for TEA party. I may be wrong.

Without discussing or judging the merits of the positions of each camp, I must say this point of view is absurd. Most of what you call liberal in the US would be seen as very much right of center in about any other Western country. Democrats in Europe or Canada would be a right-wing party, and Republicans would be the fringe right that gets a few % points and maybe a few seats depending on the system. Tea party would be in the same kind of extreme fringe as neo-nazis on one side and anarchists and marxist-leninists on the other.

The US is extremely conservative both socially and economically compared to most places. Saying things like "the establishment republicans are liberal like the democrats" is ludicrous. You have a very skewed understanding of politics if you really honestly think establishement republicans and democrats are the same, and even more if you think either of them are actually progressive.
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« Reply #8 on: Jan 19, 2018, 07:04AM »

The US is extremely conservative both socially and economically compared to most places. Saying things like "the establishment republicans are liberal like the democrats" is ludicrous. You have a very skewed understanding of politics if you really honestly think establishement republicans and democrats are the same, and even more if you think either of them are actually progressive.
Well... he does live in Texas...
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« Reply #9 on: Jan 19, 2018, 09:18AM »


 Saying things like "the establishment republicans are liberal like the democrats" is ludicrous.


Actually, the statement is half true. You're right, calling today's Democrats liberal is absurd.  But, the TEA Party wing of the Republican Party began taking it over with the election of Reagan. Eisenhower had said about this wing "they are few in number, and they are stupid". He neglected to mention they were also massively rich. It is they who have pushed the Republican Party to the far right fringe. Bill Clinton "triangulated" by selling out the traditional base of the Democrat Party, unions and blue collar workers, by ceding the party to the Eisenhower wing of the Republican Party. Today's Democrat Party is actually to the right of the Eisenhower GOP (currently the Government of Putin/ Predators {both physical and financial}). Bernie Sanders is very close to being an Eisenhower Republican, and he is seen as a flaming Communist by the non-critical thinking "White-wingers" of today's TEA Party.
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Le.Tromboniste
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« Reply #10 on: Jan 19, 2018, 09:26AM »

Actually, the statement is half true. You're right, calling today's Democrats liberal is absurd.  But, the TEA Party wing of the Republican Party began taking it over with the election of Reagan. Eisenhower had said about this wing "they are few in number, and they are stupid". He neglected to mention they were also massively rich. It is they who have pushed the Republican Party to the far right fringe. Bill Clinton "triangulated" by selling out the traditional base of the Democrat Party, unions and blue collar workers, by ceding the party to the Eisenhower wing of the Republican Party. Today's Democrat Party is actually to the right of the Eisenhower GOP (currently the Government of Putin/ Predators {both physical and financial}). Bernie Sanders is very close to being an Eisenhower Republican, and he is seen as a flaming Communist by the non-critical thinking "White-wingers" of today's TEA Party.

Well yes that's what I'm saying. The Democrats went right and the Republican went further right. Today's Republican establishment (which is shrinking) is not quite as right-wing crazy as the Tea Party, but still quite far to the right of the spectrum in absolute terms.
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« Reply #11 on: Jan 19, 2018, 09:48AM »

I've always been a bit doubtful about how much the general public notices the shutdowns
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Robert Holmén

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« Reply #12 on: Jan 19, 2018, 11:58AM »

I've always been a bit doubtful about how much the general public notices the shutdowns
Depends on the area.

I have a buddy in the FAA who banks with a federal employees credit union. Apparently the credit union offers a no interest loan in the amount of what pay would be, and then just collects it on the backed when/if it finally comes. So the actual impact is very little, though the psychological is certainly there. That said, not every federal employee banks with them (this particular union has very few branches). I doubt that also applies to contractors, which have grown in percentage of the federal workforce...

Then you get into the military, which has a high number of both employees and contractors, and numerous small towns where the local base is a main economic engine. Those feel it.

And then there's the social security, medicare, and other program recipients...

Areas with a lot of government employees or federal government benefits will feel it.

And since most civil beneficiaries are older, and most federal welfare dollars go to the poorer states (who are also red states)... it hits the GOP base harder.
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« Reply #13 on: Jan 19, 2018, 12:04PM »

Social Security checks would continue as would many other day-day things.


Quote
Here is a list of services and how they would be affected if a CR is not passed by Friday night:

Air travel
Air travel would not be affected as federal air traffic controllers would remain on the job and Transportation Security Administration screeners would remain in place.

Federal court
For about two weeks, federal courts would continue operating normally. After that time, the judiciary would have to furlough employees not considered essential.

Food safety
The Food and Drug Administration would handle high-risk recalls. Most routine safety inspections would be halted.
Health

Patients in the National Institutes of Health would continue to be treated. New patients would not be accepted until a funding bill is in place.

International travel
 
You could still get a passport and visa applications would still be processed by the State Department. Fees collected when someone applies for a visa or a passport fund those services.

Loans
The Federal Housing Administration, the agency that guarantees about 30 percent of all American home mortgages, wouldn't be able to underwrite or approve any new loans during a shutdown, causing a delay for those using one of those loans to purchase a home.
 
The mail
You would still get mail, as the U.S. Postal Service is not funded by taxpayer dollars for everyday operations.

Military
Active-duty military personnel would stay on duty, but their paychecks would be delayed.

National parks
All national parks would be closed, as would the Smithsonian museums. Visitors in overnight campgrounds in national parks would be given 48 hours to make alternate arrangements and leave the park.

School lunches, SNAP and WIC
School breakfasts and lunches funded by the federal government would not be affected. The Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children, or WIC, could be affected. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, which used to be called the Food Stamp Program, would continue to be funded and SNAP benefits would continue to be distributed. But several smaller feeding programs would not have the money to operate.

Science
The National Weather Service would keep forecasting weather.

Social Security
Social Security, Medicare and unemployment benefits would be paid, but new applications for those payments could be delayed.

Veterans services
Most services offered through the Department of Veterans Affairs would continue.
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Robert Holmén

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« Reply #14 on: Jan 19, 2018, 12:26PM »

Social Security checks would continue as would many other day-day things.
Yes and no. Many services will continue in some respect, but most will do so with fewer people and only servicing a smaller offering of services that then normal operations.

So social security checks may go out to the already established, but those who have other items with social security than getting a pre-established payment may run into issues.

Other areas stop entirely, such as if I was looking to refi my house currently instead of a couple of months ago. The bank locks in the rate for a set period, but then most turn around and close it with the FHA. If it goes past the contractual period due to government shutdown, the rate may be lost as well as the refi sale may be lost.

On the other hand, while people are working to provide these services... they are not getting paid for it. Which means they have less money to spend in their local economies. Other non-essential employees and contractors do not work at all, and have no guarantee that they will get paid during the time they otherwise planned on having a paycheck. So... towns built around military bases... ouch. Towns/businesses/areas built around tourism of national parks... ouch.


The biggest impact of a shutdown is not felt immediately. Even a brief shutdown costs a tremendous amount of money, causes an incredible disruption of plans for these agencies, as well as kills moral for governmental employees.
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« Reply #15 on: Jan 19, 2018, 12:34PM »

Even a brief shutdown costs a tremendous amount of money, causes an incredible disruption of plans for these agencies, as well as kills moral for governmental employees.

All part of the "burn it down" agenda.
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Robert Holmén

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« Reply #16 on: Jan 19, 2018, 12:36PM »

All part of the "burn it down" agenda.
Indeed.


Here's a breakdown of the impact plans should this happen...
https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/agency-contingency-plans/
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