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The Trombone ForumPractice BreakPolls(Moderators: bhcordova, RedHotMama, BFW) Who will the GOP nominate for President in '08?
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Question: Who will the GOP nominate for President in '08?
Sam Brownback
James Gilmore
Rudy Guiliani
Mike Huckabee
Duncan Hunter
John McCain
Ron Paul
Mitt Romney
Tom Tancredo
Fred Thompson
Tommy Thompson
Other (explain below)

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Todd Jonz
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« on: May 31, 2007, 08:31PM »


(NOTE:  You may change your vote in this poll at any time if you like.  If this thread stays alive long enough, this might be an interesting way to monitor community opinion over time as the Republican presidential race progresses.  Remember to cast your vote for who you think will win the nomination, not who you think should win the nomination.)

I think the race for the Republican presidential nomination is going to start getting interesting with the imminent entry of Fred Thompson.  There's an interesting article in today's Washington Post that makes a good argument that his formal announcement as a candidate will shake up the field considerably.

Is there any question but that the man wears the mantle of Ronald Reagan?  He brings the same kind of familiarity, poise, charisma, and experience to the arena that Reagan did, and from what I can glean so far his politics are very similar.  He certainly poses a threat to Rudy Guiliani, who represents the old school from which (according to recent polls) Republican voters want a change, and John "The Second Time's a Charm" McCain.

If he keeps the rhetoric on low he projects a folksy, non-threatening, almost paternalistic personality that has broad appeal.  He diverges from current party dogma on several issues (e.g. he supports campaign finance reform and believes that gay marriage is a states' rights issue) and has the potential to attract the support of independents and moderate Democrats.  Most importantly, despite his experience in Congress, it sounds like he plans to position himself as a Washington outsider, which strikes me as a very shrewd move right now for a Republican contender.

(Actually, Thompson's Washington experience goes back much further than his days in Congress.  As Republican counsel to the Senate Watergate committee he was the one who asked Alexander Butterfield if there were listening devices in the Oval Office -- the question that ultimately caused the Nixon administration to disintegrate.)

« Last Edit: Jun 03, 2007, 10:57PM by Todd Jonz » Logged

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evan51
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« Reply #1 on: May 31, 2007, 09:20PM »

Todd---if the question is simply who will (not should) the Repubs nominate, I think Fred might be throwing in his hat a bit late. Then again, except for Paul, they all sound interchangeable to me---another four years of deficit spending, killing, and lies. As the party of big business, big government, and big debts and balance of trade deficits, Thompson would certainly be a good inheritor of the Reagan legacy.
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Todd Jonz
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« Reply #2 on: Jun 01, 2007, 12:22AM »


Evan writes:

> I think Fred might be throwing in his hat a bit late.

I dunno.  I think the field is still wide open.  Despite the brownie points that Paul scored in the debate I seriously doubt the GOP movers and shakers see him as a viable candidate.  After the debate I saw a poll (sorry, can't find a pointer at the moment) indicating that Republican voters favored "somebody else" over any of the participants.  There's obviously no consensus within the party of what a post-Bush platform should look like.  Sounds to me like a terrific time for a Reagan clone to come riding in on a white horse.

> if the question is simply who will (not should) the Repubs nominate

I think the question of who they will nominate (and why) is a far more interesting topic for discussion than who they should nominate.


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« Reply #3 on: Jun 01, 2007, 05:36AM »

I believe Rudy Giuliani is the man to lead us into the New American Century
(www.newamericancentury.org/statementofprinciples.htm)

He talks just like the neocons (spewing disinformation left and right) and has the support of neocons.  He was there on 9/11 and did just what he was supposed to do: nothing (along with doing and saying everything he's told).   I really wonder if he actually believes what he says. 

Wagers anyone?

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« Reply #4 on: Jun 01, 2007, 07:25AM »

I believe Rudy Giuliani is the man to lead us into the New American Century
(www.newamericancentury.org/statementofprinciples.htm)

He talks just like the neocons (spewing disinformation left and right) and has the support of neocons.  He was there on 9/11 and did just what he was supposed to do: nothing (along with doing and saying everything he's told).   I really wonder if he actually believes what he says. 

Wagers anyone?



Republicans have been trained to respond to hollow rhetoric and Rudy more than qualifies as their spokesman. And he did play his part perfectly in the 9/11 theatre. Let's see what the Diebold machines say in the first primaries.  ;-)

TODD: I agree the Republicans would not nominate Paul, but as he's set himself apart from the crowd he might be able to gather enough votes as the "alternative" candidate to stay in the race.
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« Reply #5 on: Jun 01, 2007, 09:51AM »

I think that by the convention the front-runners may well be Giuliani and Thompson.  But I wonder if it matters who gets the nomination.  It seems to me that we've entering a political cycle where if a President stays in office two terms, there will be enough back-lash vote to elect the other party's nominee.  I know it barely happened last time but I also think there will be a lot more back-lash vote this time.
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Todd Jonz
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« Reply #6 on: Jun 01, 2007, 10:07AM »

Dave writes:

> I believe Rudy Giuliani is the man to lead us into the New American Century

Rudy is unboubtedly the best choice to carry the PNAC banner, but I don't think that's the flag the GOP wants to fly.  As the poll I cited above illustrates, a majority of Republicans perceive a close alignment with the current administration's policies as a liability in the election.  They're not sure exactly what they want yet, but four more years of the same ain't it.

Most Americans see Rudy as the guy who cleaned up crime in NYC and as the figurehead who "guided the nation through its darkest hour."  When it gets down to brass tacks (and beyond law and order posturing) his opponents will find plenty of points to attack in his record as mayor -- his disasterous attempt to reform the NYC school system, the politics of placing the EOC inside the WTC,  censorship of the arts (remember the elephant dung Madonna?)  I think Rudy's shiny image may become a bit tarnished as the race progresses.

Evan writes:

> I agree the Republicans would not nominate Paul, but as he's set
> himself apart from the crowd he might be able to gather enough
> votes as the "alternative" candidate to stay in the race.

I cerainly hope that Paul stays in it for as long as possible.  It would be great if he can muster enough support to run on a third party ticket (preferably not Libertarian) or as an independent.  He's the guy most likely to keep the conversation lively.  Even Ross "Can I Finish?" Perot served a purpose.  ;-)

> Let's see what the Diebold machines say in the first primaries.

They won't be saying anything in California -- they've been decertified.  Let's hope that by the time the primaries roll around a few more states will have wised up.

slidejj writes:

> I wonder if it matters who gets the nomination.  It seems to me that we've
> entering a political cycle where if a President stays in office two terms, there
> will be enough back-lash vote to elect the other party's nominee.

I tend to agree with this assessment in general, but I think it depends a great deal on who the donkey party nominates.  If their candidate is perceived as too liberal (which is not all that unlikely) and the GOP candidate is perceived as a moderate, I think the Republicans stand a pretty good chance.  And while I personally think both of the Democratic front-runners are highly qualified, I think there's still a fundamental question about the electability of a woman or a black man as president.

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« Reply #7 on: Jun 01, 2007, 10:36AM »

> I wonder if it matters who gets the nomination.  It seems to me that we've
> entering a political cycle where if a President stays in office two terms, there
> will be enough back-lash vote to elect the other party's nominee.

I tend to agree with this assessment in general, but I think it depends a great deal on who the donkey party nominates.  If their candidate is perceived as too liberal (which is not all that unlikely) and the GOP candidate is perceived as a moderate, I think the Republicans stand a pretty good chance.  And while I personally think both of the Democratic front-runners are highly qualified, I think there's still a fundamental question about the electability of a woman or a black man as president.

You bring up an excellent point, which could lead to Thompson being the nominee, he's a moderate who may be perceived as enough of an outsider to retain a lot of votes from Republicans sick of the current administration.  Are the current Democratic front-runners considered electable enough to win the nomination?  A very interesting question.  If the Dem's play it safe, the back-lash vote could carry them to victory, if not it could be a very interesting campaign and election.
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« Reply #8 on: Jun 01, 2007, 10:53AM »

One thing that has happened is that we have a "horse race" campaign.  Who scores in the most races (primaries) and then becomes the candidate.  In earlier elections (I am talking about 1976 and earlier) there were no "national" primaries and each candidate had to go from primary to primary trying to garner delegates.  Usually there was a deadlock at the convention between one or two frontrunners and often a "dark horse" candidate had to be endorsed as a compromise.  John Kennedy was one such dark horse, Franklin Roosevelt was another.  So was Abraham Lincoln.

I feel that we cannot find a good candidate since we are looking for somebody with some ideas who also happens to be a saint (free from all taint).  Such folks are pretty rare and if we keep trying to find skeletons in the closet we won't be able to elect anybody.

Also, elections run way too long.  A 2-year Presidential race costs enormous amounts of money (mostly paid to the Television and Radio networks, the newspapers, the airlines, printers, and some consultants) and results in both the candidates and the electorate being totally drained.

I would like to see some election reform:

1.  Nobody can declare for President before January of the year of the election.

2.  There will be a couple of primaries in small states (New Hampshire and Iowa, for example) that will allow some of the less endowed (financially) candidates to "test the water".  These primaries cannot occur before March of the electoral year.

3.  There will be a National Primary in May or June.  Everybody other than the couple of small states.

4.  Candidates would be declared at the Political Convention in July.  The regular campaign will kick off after the second convention.  This limits the formal campaign to 13 weeks and the primary campaign to about 18 weeks.

I really think we need to have the electorate focus on something other than a Presidential campaign for most of the time.



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Bruce Guttman
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Todd Jonz
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« Reply #9 on: Jun 01, 2007, 12:08PM »


Bruce writes:

> I would like to see some election reform

Are you aware of what the Unity08 folks are trying to do?  Their philosophy is that partisonship has brought American government to a grinding halt.  In a nutshell, anyone can become a "delegate" to Unity08's online "convention", which will attempt to build grassroots support for a bipartisan "dream ticket" consisting of one Republican and one Democrat.  The theory is that if Unity08 can demonstrate overwhelming support for such a ticket that the candidates will agree to be drafted.  AFAIK it hasn't yet been decided whether they would run as independents or as a third party (Unity08 is not, at present, a party -- funding, FEC rules, etc.)

If nothing else it's an interesting idea.  Sam Waterston has been the front man for this operation, which makes me wonder if Fred Thompson might be looking at Unity08 as a potentially useful tool.  If Fred isn't at the front of the GOP pack as the convention nears, he might well consider playing ball with Unity08 if he happens to be one of the candidates on their dream ticket.  Sounds to me like a perfectly reasonable Plan B for a guy who's positioning himself as a Washington outsider and who doesn't fully toe the line with respect to current party dogma.

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Todd Jonz
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« Reply #10 on: Jun 03, 2007, 09:20AM »


There was an interesting discussion about Michael Bloomberg on The McLaughlin Group this morning.  Word on the street is that he's putting out feelers about throwing his hat in the ring.  Although nominally a Republican (at the moment, anyway) he's pro-choice, supports gun control and immigration reform, and opposes the war in Iraq.  Not exactly the Republican poster boy, is he?  Oficially Bloomberg dismisses the possibility that he'll run with the question, "How likely is a 5'7"-Jew-from-New-York billionaire who's divorced and running as an independent to become president of the United States?"

Might this be exactly the sort of candidate that Unity08 is looking for?  As a registered independent voter (who describes himself as a social liberal and fiscal conservative with a libertarian bent), I'd certainly give Bloomberg very serious consideration.

Any New Yawkers out there who'd care to compare Mssrs. Guiliani and Bloomberg's terms as mayor of their fair city?

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DanJaffe
« Reply #11 on: Jun 03, 2007, 09:45AM »

Any New Yawkers out there who'd care to compare Mssrs. Guiliani and Bloomberg's terms as mayor of their fair city?


I think both have been fine mayors of the city. Guiliani ad a much tougher job in converting the city in the early nineties - and Bloomberg picked up where Guiliani left off. Bloomberg has done a gret deal of good for the city - he's made major changes in the education system, seemingly for the better though it's hard to tell. Bloomberg has also done a lot to make the city a cleaner, healthier place. And he's been largely effective in doing so.

I think he would make a fine President. He's smart and effective. He's understated, but relentless. He's non-offensive, but a tough negotiator. He would be an excellent candidate, but this country is not ready to elect a Jew to its highest office.

Also, I don't think Bloomerg is 5'7". I've stood next to him on the train several times, and he's substantially shorter than I am (and I'm only 5'8").
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« Reply #12 on: Jun 03, 2007, 10:08AM »

I think he would make a fine President. He's smart and effective. He's understated, but relentless. He's non-offensive, but a tough negotiator. He would be an excellent candidate, but this country is not ready to elect a Jew to its highest office.

But you think they'd elect an Italian?  Amazed :D
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« Reply #13 on: Jun 03, 2007, 10:21AM »

Italians don't have to hide their horns Evil

Remember, Giuliani is still a Christian.  I'm sure that Lieberman sabotaged (though not intentionally) Gore's ticket in the rural South (where there are still people who refer to us as "Christ Killers" and believe we have horns that we keep "shaved").

Bloomberg and Giuliani both are way too liberal for the NeoCons.  Most New York Republicans are far to the left of the folks that the Elephant has been proposing.  I remember meeting Nelson Rockefeller and Jacob Javitz.  I also remember when John Lindsey was a Republican (he later changed to Democrat).

I would love to see Bloomberg run, but I'm afraid that he, like Hillary Clinton, have a problem that cannot be worked around.
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« Reply #14 on: Jun 03, 2007, 11:56AM »


Dan writes:

> I don't think Bloomerg is 5'7"

Sometimes I'm willing to forgive a politician's lies.  ;-)

Evan writes:

> > this country is not ready to elect
> > a Jew to its highest office.
>
> But you think they'd elect an Italian?

Clinton can't win because she's a woman, Obama because he's black, Guiliani because he's Italian, and Bloomberg because he's a Jew.  Ain't these swell times we live in?

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« Reply #15 on: Jun 03, 2007, 12:04PM »

I would love to see Bloomberg run, but I'm afraid that he, like Hillary Clinton, have a problem that cannot be worked around.

Hilary is Jewish, too?!  :D  I thought I saw some horns showing through her last 'do.  :/

No one has mentioned Powell of late----I wonder if he might step up and put his name in? I should think he's the clear choice over all the damaged goods that are the current "frontrunners." He was in the news  lately in relation a story about the neoCons reversing China policy and provoking a nuclear exchange with China------seems as though these guys are determined to create their own Armageddon.

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« Reply #16 on: Jun 03, 2007, 12:17PM »


Evan writes:

> > this country is not ready to elect
> > a Jew to its highest office.
>
> But you think they'd elect an Italian?

Clinton can't win because she's a woman, Obama because he's black, Guiliani because he's Italian, and Bloomberg because he's a Jew.  Ain't these swell times we live in?  Sometimes I wonder if we're making any progress at all as a society.

> No one has mentioned Powell of late -- I wonder
> if he might step up and put his name in?

I don't expect to see much of poor old Colin in the political arena.  As the sole member of the original Bush administration that I genuinely admired, his execution of his office has me in a fundamental quandery.  He still has my respect for doing his best to be a team player despite the fact that he was obviously the odd man out, but that doesn't compensate for the fact the he knowingly pimped the lies that got us into the war.  I think Powell has an irreparable integrity problem.

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« Reply #17 on: Jun 03, 2007, 12:19PM »

I think Powell lost his credibility when he went to the U.N. and espoused the Bush Administration lies as an excuse to go to war with Iraq.  He was clearly the puppet on a string and much as I admire him, that really soured it for me.

Can you imagine a Presidential race between Powell and Obama?  Who will the KKK support? ;-)
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« Reply #18 on: Jun 03, 2007, 05:53PM »

Tanned, rested and ready--Harold Stassen in 2008!  :D

Seriously, I had to keep reminding myself that this isn't a personal preference poll.  Rather, who will the Republicans nominate? 

I have to say, I'm having horrific visions of Bob Dole or some similarly elderly Caucasian-type establishment being nominated and simultaneously screwing up the Republican's chances to win against the neolibs.
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« Reply #19 on: Jun 03, 2007, 07:14PM »

........the Republican's chances to win against the neolibs.
The NeoLibs being........?
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