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The Trombone ForumPractice BreakPolls(Moderators: bhcordova, RedHotMama, BFW) What candidate do you think will be our next president?
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Question: What candidate do you think will be our next president? This is not a question about who you support, but rather who you think will win. Candidates listed in alphabetical order of last name.
Hillary Clinton - 36 (50.7%)
Ted Cruz - 4 (5.6%)
Bernie Sanders - 14 (19.7%)
Donald Trump - 17 (23.9%)
Total Voters: 70

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alownx

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« on: Apr 06, 2016, 05:55AM »

What candidate do you think will be our next president? This is not a question about who you support, but rather who you think will win. Candidates listed in alphabetical order of last name.
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« Reply #1 on: Apr 06, 2016, 06:54AM »

I'm going to say Hillary for the following scenario:

1.  The Dump Trump movement succeeds in getting a Brokered Convention in Cleveland.  The delegates ignore both Trump and Cruz (mainstream Republicans hate them both) and put forth a dark horse in some later ballot.  Maybe Kasich, maybe JEB, maybe even Huntsman.

2.  Trump abrogates the agreement to support the candidate and runs a 3rd Party.  In many States he will have to run as a Write-In since the filing deadline needs to be several weeks before the election

3.  Hillary wins enough delegates to the Democratic convention to get nominated.  Maybe asks Bernie to be VP.

4.  In the General, many Republicans stay home.  Others will bolt and vote for Trump, siphoning votes from whomever the Republicans manage to nominate.  This also provides a strong coattail effect bringing in Democrats to the marginal House and Senate seats (often these are won by the Presidential party in Presidential Elections and won by the Opposition Party in By-elections).

With a grudging majority in the Senate, Hillary can nominate a Liberal to SCOTUS replacing Scalia, and another to replace Ruth Bader Ginzburg.  Who knows?  Maybe even Barack Obama (remember Taft?).

The Republican party splits into two factions: Republicans and TEA.  The TEA Party are the hard line Conservatives.  This also splits the electorate, with aging Boomers and Millennials joining the TEA Party.  Until enough Boomers die off this will be a permanent fracture on the Right.
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ddickerson

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« Reply #2 on: Apr 06, 2016, 07:18AM »

I agree with Bruce's analysis and conclusions, except the part about boomers and millennials.

The republican party needs to be purged such that it represents the conservatives once again.

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« Reply #3 on: Apr 06, 2016, 07:46AM »

The Republican party splits into two factions: Republicans and TEA.  The TEA Party are the hard line Conservatives.  This also splits the electorate, with aging Boomers and Millennials joining the TEA Party.  Until enough Boomers die off this will be a permanent fracture on the Right.

Millennials in the TEA party? HAH!  Amazed Amazed  :/ :/ Eeek!

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« Reply #4 on: Apr 06, 2016, 08:46AM »

I'm going to hope it's none of the above.  There ARE other choices.
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« Reply #5 on: Apr 06, 2016, 08:52AM »

I'm going to hope it's none of the above.  There ARE other choices.

The Primary selection process has yielded these 4.

Now if you want to write in Mickey Mouse or None of the Above, that's another matter. ;-)

In a Brokered Convention (most likely for the Republicans) a dark horse may emerge.  Probably not Rubio.  I would lean to JEB Bush or Kasich.

I'm sure Joe Biden has wished the Hillary-Bernie race was closer with neither one winning so he could be a Dark Horse for the Democrats.
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Baron von Bone
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« Reply #6 on: Apr 06, 2016, 08:56AM »

The Republican party splits into two factions: Republicans and TEA.  The TEA Party are the hard line Conservatives.  This also splits the electorate, with aging Boomers and Millennials joining the TEA Party.  Until enough Boomers die off this will be a permanent fracture on the Right.

I've been thinking the GOP needs to split and just get it done and over with for about 30 years now (the fanatics have just been too convenient for most of that time, before going all Palinstein and Trumpenstein on them), so we'll have at least two viable and rational parties. The new radical conservative and neocon types need to make their own party (TEA Party or whatever--they immediately and massively hijacked that one from the adult originators too), and the GOP can return to viability with the adults back in charge. Then most Americans may actually have a real choice between candidates.
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« Reply #7 on: Apr 06, 2016, 08:56AM »

The Primary selection process has yielded these 4.



Sure, from the Republican and Democrat parties.  You're implying those are the only people running. That isn't correct.
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« Reply #8 on: Apr 06, 2016, 09:08AM »

I picked Hillary, but I can image Cruz maybe winning...

-After a year of Trump, Cruz might be perceived as the sensible one. No matter what crazy thing he's done in the past it will always look less crazy than Trump.

-Outside of professional pundit people he's not well known. He could put on a new public face.

-I think the GOP can out fundraise the Dems this year. Hillary is not a candidate that the Dems have a big attachment to.


Millennials in the TEA party? HAH! 

It's the hats

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« Reply #9 on: Apr 06, 2016, 09:24AM »

Sure, from the Republican and Democrat parties.  You're implying those are the only people running. That isn't correct.
I can't figure why *anybody* would want that job. What a pain in the a***! No wonder why we have the current field of candidates.
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« Reply #10 on: Apr 06, 2016, 10:10AM »

I can't figure why *anybody* would want that job.

Because power evokes a response similar to cocaine.
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« Reply #11 on: Apr 06, 2016, 11:58AM »

Sanders.

Pay attention.
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« Reply #12 on: Apr 06, 2016, 12:30PM »

Sure, from the Republican and Democrat parties.  You're implying those are the only people running. That isn't correct.
Homer "I can vote third party!"

Kang "Go ahead, throw your vote away."



Kodos might be a better option,
Andy
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« Reply #13 on: Apr 06, 2016, 01:27PM »


"Go ahead, throw your vote away."



I will never feel bad about voting for someone who I think would do a better job.  I think the only reason more people don't vote for an alternative to R/D is because the media doesn't present any other option.  Far too many people rely on the media to tell them what their options are.

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« Reply #14 on: Apr 06, 2016, 01:53PM »

I would put current odds on Clinton. I think even if Sanders comes close to her delegate count, the establishment and super delegates would much rather see her. She is the most status quo after all.

And really, the GOP has no sign of a candidate that is tolerable by most of the population. Trump would bring more people to the poles against him than for him, and I get the feeling that if Trump went out of the way and people could focus on Cruz, they would dislike him even more.
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« Reply #15 on: Apr 06, 2016, 02:11PM »

I'm going to hope it's none of the above.  There ARE other choices.
Who are on enough ballots in enough states to win? Doubtful. Kasich has a better shot of taking it all the way.

And seems like the green and libertarian parties are currently little more than extreme versions of the GOP/Dems. Libertarian being the fiscal fantasies of the gop, and green being a socialist and hippie version of the dems.

The republican party needs to be purged such that it represents the conservatives once again.
Attempting to "purge" the party of non-conservatives is what opened them up to the current nonsense they are in now. You don't grow by getting more exclusive. And you certainly don't grow in the long term by putting forth a meaningless platform of opposition.
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« Reply #16 on: Apr 06, 2016, 02:23PM »

They all scare the crap out of me!

Wish there was a "None of the Above" selection.....
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« Reply #17 on: Apr 06, 2016, 02:48PM »

They all scare the crap out of me!

Wish there was a "None of the Above" selection.....


I would say that Bernie and Trump were the "none of the above" candidacies for people who are not satisfied with the result of past standard party establishment choices.



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« Reply #18 on: Apr 06, 2016, 03:52PM »

Bill Clinton will be FMOTUS

which would be weird

....maybe
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« Reply #19 on: Apr 06, 2016, 03:56PM »

Bill Clinton will be FMOTUS
 
which would be weird
 
....maybe

Wouldn't it be FGOTUS?
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