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The Trombone ForumPractice BreakChit-ChatPurely Politics(Moderators: bhcordova, RedHotMama, BFW) What Trump's election means for the rest of the world
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Graham Martin
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« on: Nov 16, 2016, 04:52PM »

There are many important things that politicians around the world will have to consider following the news of Trump's election. So rather than the ongoing topics about the impacts on Americans, this topic is for we foreigners.

As far as Australia is concerned it is already causing us to recalibrate some areas of our relationship with our up-to-now most important ally. There will obviously be a substantive shift in US foreign policy and that probably means that we will have to work more closely with Asian countries. It is already putting friction on the Australian bi-partisan approach towards the US Alliance because of the now differing ideas on how it should proceed, although most of our politicians seem committed to the relationship, even if it changes somewhat.

It will be very interesting this weekend when world leaders, including our PM, meet at APEC in Lima, Peru. It seems to me that none of them will have sufficient knowledge to comprehend Trump's rise or to really work out which directions he will choose, even though there are likely unwelcome consequences for most. Amongst those attending are Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines, as well as Japan, Korea, and Canada.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-17/trump-win-to-weigh-heavily-on-world-leaders-at-apec-meeting/8029296

Mind you, I think it will be best for them to adopt a wait-and-see policy. As far as Australia is concerned, we must make absolutely sure we have some good back-up plans that do not include the participation of the US.
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Grah

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« Reply #1 on: Nov 16, 2016, 04:57PM »

Trump is getting that "oh God, what have I gotten myself into" acclimation and is learning about his job.  He's going to do a lot of recalibrating as the enormity and scope of the job sinks in.  Some of the things he said during the campaign will probably become lost as he finds his way.  What will happen?  We probably won't know until he's a month into his term (February).

You should understand that any time he loses he will call it a victory; even if he is trounced.  Negotiating with him is dealing with a compulsive liar.  He will say anything to "get the deal" so be prepared with serious facts.
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« Reply #2 on: Nov 16, 2016, 05:09PM »

The dysfunction may be brief.

It may be I'll note that, typically, whenever the GOP has gotten control of the POTUS and both houses of Congress all at once, they over-reached so far there was Dem wave in the next election.

I'm hoping history repeats itself.


Quote

Mind you, I think it will be best for them to adopt a wait-and-see policy. As far as Australia is concerned, we must make absolutely sure we have some good back-up plans that do not include the participation of the US.


If Europe ever gets its act together they could take care of themselves without the US. I don't see our Asian/Pacific allies ever doing that without the US as the glue.
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Robert Holmén

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« Reply #3 on: Nov 17, 2016, 05:42AM »


It may be I'll note that, typically, whenever the GOP has gotten control of the POTUS and both houses of Congress all at once, they over-reached so far there was Dem wave in the next election.


It has happened twice in the last 100 years. The first time gave us the Great Depression. THe second gave us the Iraq War and the Great Recession. Reagan only needed the Senate and his friend Tip O'neil to destroy our economy and middle class. We have to hope that when, not if, it is inevitable, the wheels come off this time Trump doesn't blow up the world.
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« Reply #4 on: Nov 17, 2016, 05:54AM »

Actually... short term, oh god. Long term... The next presidential election is 2020. That also coincides with the next census. Right now, the GOP is in great power at state and federal level... much of it through gerrymandering. Most of their inertia has been based on opposition to changes, and not what they are doing. They have just lost the first, and the latter, well, their solutions for the problems are more likely to make them worse rather than better.

So, if they can ultimately lose their own base enough, and tork off the dems enough, the numbers may overcome the gerrymandering and swing the pendulum back for much longer to come.

It's time to stop standing in the way of fixing thing, and actually start to fix them.

Per the world relations... Trump is mostly talk. Eastern europe may be in danger, given that he's not likely to push back against russia, but I doubt he really has much to bring to the rest of the world one way or the other. You can't just say, I'm going to make things so much better, bring an army with no plan, and get that. Doubt even trump is THAT stupid.
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Baron von Bone
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« Reply #5 on: Nov 17, 2016, 06:08AM »

It has happened twice in the last 100 years. The first time gave us the Great Depression. THe second gave us the Iraq War and the Great Recession. Reagan only needed the Senate and his friend Tip O'neil to destroy our economy and middle class. We have to hope that when, not if, it is inevitable, the wheels come off this time Trump doesn't blow up the world.

This one may break the trend though--it's far from certain that a Republican house and senate are a Trump house and senate.
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« Reply #6 on: Nov 17, 2016, 06:24AM »

It has happened twice in the last 100 years.

They also won both houses and the Pres in 1952.

That was the high water mark for the Communism scare, they held the Army-McCarthy Hearings in 1954 (on live TV), then lost both houses in the 1954 election.

Additional partial case: Dem Harry Truman was President when they won both houses in 1946, but in mid-1948 he called the GOP Congress back into special session and basically said, "OK, you have the votes, show you can govern, pass the campaign platform you just published."  They couldn't, lost both houses in the fall and probably got Truman re-elected too.
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Graham Martin
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« Reply #7 on: Nov 17, 2016, 03:07PM »

Australia is already going in "boots and all" at the meeting of world leaders at the APEC Summit in Lima. Our government under Malcolm Turnbull is determined not to bow to any drift towards protectionism and is taking a leadership role in advocating free trade. Trade Minister Steve Ciobo began negotiations with his counterparts about 24 hours before the other national leaders arrive in Lima. I doubt there will be any arguments from Obama when he arrives.

But, as I pointed out in the opening post, this year's meeting is set against the election of Trump, who is seemingly opposed to many of the free trade agreements America has locked-in over recent decades.

Personally, I think Australia has got itself into some trade deals that do not work in our favour and I am not an absolute advocate for free trade. I say that after having spent a good deal of my working life in export marketing - even at one time as the GM of a US export marketing company. I believe the supply and demand concept of economics is the backbone of a market economy. But I also believe every country should have an efficient manufacturing capacity of its own. If a country needs some protectionism (tariffs) to get to a point of offering the best product or service (for some customers), then so be it. Not that I go along with what appears to be the Trump approach.

On those trade deals that Australia currently has, take for instance the free trade agreement we have with the US. The United States is our second-largest two-way trading partner in goods and services, and our exports to the US are $22.1 billion as opposed to imports of $48.1 billion. Seems a little out of whack to me.

I do not envy the size of the job Trump has if he really goes ahead with his cancelling of free trade deals. The US currently has free trade agreements in force with 20 countries. These are:

Australia
Bahrain
Canada
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Dominican Republic
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Israel
Jordan
Korea
Mexico
Morocco
Nicaragua
Oman
Panama
Peru
Singapore

Where would you like to start Donald?
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Grah

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« Reply #8 on: Nov 17, 2016, 03:16PM »

I think fair trade sounds preferable to free trade. But I am not particularly well versed in international trade, so I couldn't really tell you what differentiates the two.
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« Reply #9 on: Nov 17, 2016, 03:43PM »

Where would you like to start Donald?

I would guess Mexico.  Mexico is the whipping boy he based his campaign on.

Then the rest of the Latin American countries and Bahrain.
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Robert Holmén

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« Reply #10 on: Nov 17, 2016, 03:53PM »

Graham,

I would like the G8 brought back into production, even if under a different label than Pontiac.

Great car and Sporty!

 ;-)

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« Reply #11 on: Nov 17, 2016, 04:05PM »

 :D
I think the most surprised man was Trump him self!
I don't think we will see that big change...

Leif
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Graham Martin
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« Reply #12 on: Nov 17, 2016, 08:06PM »

Graham,

I would like the G8 brought back into production, even if under a different label than Pontiac.

Great car and Sporty!

 ;-)



All the Australian designed cars were! But now that GM and Ford have pulled out of manufacturing in Australia and, even though I drive a Holden at present, I will never buy one of their vehicles again. Evil Of course, I do not blame GM and Ford entirely, because it was the stupid Button plan of the Hawke Labor government in 1984 that condemned our motor industry to death, by gradually reducing the tariffs. It took 30 years to die but it was inevitable that it would do so. Button should have seen that his plan was ludicrous and that it was essential to retain the tariffs because of countries like Thailand, South Africa, Korea and China entering the market and giving extra competition with their low-cost labour.

Incidentally, I am a bit nostalgic about the US motor industry because I lived in Michigan at the end of the 1970s and I had a good look at places like Pontiac. And of course the Detroit Lions were playing out of the Silverdome Stadium in those days. Good!

What worries me about trump is his apparent spur-of-the-moment decisions. When you are making decisions about trade deals and tariffs you have to be extremely analytical and predictive, and you must build in flexibility so that you can respond to market changes immediately. Why one of our governments did not help the Australian car manufacturing when they had 30 years to do it, I'll never know. Well, I do really, because our politicians and business leaders are as stupid as yours. :(
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Grah

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« Reply #13 on: Nov 18, 2016, 05:25PM »

 The crazy stuff is just getting started. Buckle up your chinstrap and hang on.
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« Reply #14 on: Nov 19, 2016, 02:55PM »

The dysfunction may be brief.
...
If Europe ever gets its act together they could take care of themselves without the US. ...

Well, actually the election of Trump may well be the reason why Europe will take the steering wheel firm in its own hands and pull it's act together, as you call it.

The most astonishing thing from my view is that such a large population can not find a better president than the one elected recently. That seems really a dysfunctional political system.
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« Reply #15 on: Nov 19, 2016, 04:55PM »

The most astonishing thing from my view is that such a large population can not find a better president than the one elected recently. That seems really a dysfunctional political system.

We're operating on a Presidential selection process dreamed up when people also believed in blood-letting, a hollow earth and human slavery.
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Robert Holmén

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« Reply #16 on: Nov 19, 2016, 05:00PM »

Our candidate selection process is rather recent -- the Primary system really got its start some 50 years ago.  Before that it was mostly smoke filled back rooms and a Convention (which dates back to the third Presidential Election or so).

The idea of the Electoral College does in fact date back to the Hollow Earth era and Slavery.
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Bruce Guttman
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« Reply #17 on: Nov 19, 2016, 05:18PM »

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« Reply #18 on: Nov 19, 2016, 05:27PM »

Alternatively:

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« Reply #19 on: Nov 19, 2016, 06:29PM »



Yes!...right before the beheading by...well, you know!  Evil
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