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Author Topic: Faux Nuze  (Read 4004 times)
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ddickerson

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« Reply #80 on: Dec 19, 2016, 06:01PM »

Now you know how Greg Waits feels.  He's in a small liberal enclave in Texas.  He doesn't get a vote either.

That's not true Bruce. Dallas has a liberal mayor as do all the other major cities in Texas. In fact, I'm sure he is very comfortable.
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BGuttman
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« Reply #81 on: Dec 19, 2016, 06:23PM »

That's not true Bruce. Dallas has a liberal mayor as do all the other major cities in Texas. In fact, I'm sure he is very comfortable.

Not in his votes for President or Governor.
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« Reply #82 on: Dec 19, 2016, 06:31PM »

It just clarifies that the Electoral College is correct.
Correct? Garnering the verdict you desired so strongly has no impact on how valid or correct something is.

The states vote for the president. The presidency is not decided by a majority of the citizens. If it was setup that way, looking at the red/blue maps indicates that a tiny portion of the country would elect the president, and about 95% of the rest of the country would be without a voice.
so a majority vote is 5% eh? some math ya got there :-P

I would note, per the initial logic, the only federal level elected by the people was the house of representatives. The senate was elected by state representatives, not the people, as was the president. The court being the most removed. The entire idea of people having a presidential option on the ballot... why? Electors we also chosen by elected state officials. Even now, electors are often chosen by the party that won the popular vote, or those in office. NOT the people. And the electors themselves could vote against both if they so choose.

Also per the initial logic of the founders, texas didn't exist.

Maybe we should go back the the original scope and intention!  Idea!
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« Reply #83 on: Dec 19, 2016, 06:34PM »

Not in his votes for President or Governor.
Nor us house representative likely, given how badly texas and the major cities like dallas are gerrymandered.
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ddickerson

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« Reply #84 on: Dec 19, 2016, 07:19PM »

Not in his votes for President or Governor.

You guys were claiming that Texas was a swing state ready to tip over. Remember?
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ddickerson

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« Reply #85 on: Dec 19, 2016, 07:20PM »

Correct? Garnering the verdict you desired so strongly has no impact on how valid or correct something is.
so a majority vote is 5% eh? some math ya got there :-P

I would note, per the initial logic, the only federal level elected by the people was the house of representatives. The senate was elected by state representatives, not the people, as was the president. The court being the most removed. The entire idea of people having a presidential option on the ballot... why? Electors we also chosen by elected state officials. Even now, electors are often chosen by the party that won the popular vote, or those in office. NOT the people. And the electors themselves could vote against both if they so choose.

Also per the initial logic of the founders, texas didn't exist.

Maybe we should go back the the original scope and intention!  Idea!

I agree I think that Senators should be chosen by the state legislatures instead of nation wide coverage of state senators.
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« Reply #86 on: Dec 19, 2016, 07:22PM »

Nor us house representative likely, given how badly texas and the major cities like dallas are gerrymandered.

Texas is filled with republican reps that vote with the demos all the time.
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« Reply #87 on: Dec 19, 2016, 07:25PM »

Texas is filled with republican reps that vote with the demos all the time.

Is "all the time" once or twice a year?  Or just that you want it that way?
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« Reply #88 on: Dec 19, 2016, 07:27PM »

You guys were claiming that Texas was a swing state ready to tip over. Remember?

Which guys? Can you quote the posts?
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« Reply #89 on: Dec 19, 2016, 07:39PM »

You guys were claiming that Texas was a swing state ready to tip over. Remember?

On the eve of the election, ALL of the polls were predicting a major win for Clinton.

Yet she lost.

The polls are usually not that wrong (sure, I remember Dewey Defeats Truman in 1948.  I was 3 weeks old).

In order for all the polls to be so mistaken one of these probably happened:

1.  People lied to the pollsters -- said they would vote for someone and then voted for someone else or didn't vote.
2.  Someone falsified the voting results.  The one recount that actually did happen did not confirm this.
3.  There was some form of voter suppression from one side or another.  Again, we don't have any concrete evidence of this.

I vote for the poeple lying to the pollsters.  Trump was presented as such an odious candidate that people probably didn't want to admit to voting for him, even anonymously.  Or something happened to change their mind at the last second, like a release the presence of additional emails by the FBI and insinuations that more State Secrets were stored on the Clinton server.
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« Reply #90 on: Dec 19, 2016, 08:05PM »

You people just don't get it.

You believed the fake news just like the fake news had everybody hoping that the electors were going to change their vote. You see how That went.
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« Reply #91 on: Dec 19, 2016, 08:25PM »

You mean "fake news" that doesn't conform to your wishes?  I was unaware that the world revolved around a small corner of Houston.

I didn't expect enough electors to defect (apparently two did).  And several Clinton electors voted for Sanders.
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« Reply #92 on: Dec 19, 2016, 09:12PM »

You mean "fake news" that doesn't conform to your wishes?  I was unaware that the world revolved around a small corner of Houston.

I didn't expect enough electors to defect (apparently two did).  And several Clinton electors voted for Sanders.

After the fake news tried to stir something up for three weeks. LOL!
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« Reply #93 on: Dec 20, 2016, 04:56AM »


3.  There was some form of voter suppression from one side or another.  Again, we don't have any concrete evidence of this.


????????????? Are you freaking kidding me?
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« Reply #94 on: Dec 20, 2016, 07:03AM »

????????????? Are you freaking kidding me?

I said concrete.  As in "smoking gun".

I am still not understanding how bad the polls could have gone.  Nate Silver (Fivethirtyeight.com) gave Trump the best chance of winning at around 30%.  Either the polls missed something or there was some kind of "divine intervention".  And the pollsters are digging deep to understand.
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« Reply #95 on: Dec 20, 2016, 07:18AM »

I said concrete.  As in "smoking gun".
 
I am still not understanding how bad the polls could have gone.  Nate Silver (Fivethirtyeight.com) gave Trump the best chance of winning at around 30%. Either the polls missed something or there was some kind of "divine intervention".  And the pollsters are digging deep to understand.

Divine?
 
How about infernal ...
 
Not that either is and RL kind of thing, but fictional forces can still afflict the minds of those who believe in them.
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« Reply #96 on: Dec 20, 2016, 07:42AM »

I said concrete.  As in "smoking gun".
Pretty sure NC would count as that, where a panel of judges noted that the gop legislature targeted minorities with surgical precision...
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« Reply #97 on: Dec 20, 2016, 07:46AM »

I said concrete.  As in "smoking gun".

I am still not understanding how bad the polls could have gone.  Nate Silver (Fivethirtyeight.com) gave Trump the best chance of winning at around 30%.  Either the polls missed something or there was some kind of "divine intervention".  And the pollsters are digging deep to understand.
The polls didn't miss by that much.  Turns out, they generally had a better accuracy than the polls in 2012.  What 'they' got wrong was the punditry.  The modelers that predicted 90%+ were making a lot of choices with the data they had.  That was not good reporting.  Nate wasn't too bad, and in retrospect his comments noting how it wasn't a slam dunk look a lot better.  Most of the punditry ignored the high number of undecideds and third parties... crucial errors for an election when neither was going to win a massive majority.  That said, the late swing to one candidate was particularly sharp and beyond the scope of what most models can handle.  

Side note, a 30+% shot is pretty decent.  Better than the chance of a miss of an NBA free throw.  Those never happen, right?  Despite the thought among fans that every free throw should be made, that isn't how the numbers work.  Similar also to the chance of an incomplete pass.  Those seem to happen quite a bit, too.  That is, they are not unusual or unexpected events given the level of variability.

Cheers,
Andy
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« Reply #98 on: Dec 20, 2016, 11:31AM »

You people just don't get it.

You believed the fake news just like the fake news had everybody hoping that the electors were going to change their vote. You see how That went.

Whom are you addressing here? Who here expected the electoral college vote to turn out different? If you're going to put words into people's mouths, show the quotes.

None of the news I read suggested there was any real chance of anyone but Trump winning the EC. So if there was 'fake news' saying that, I didn't read it, and I wouldn't have believed it. This is another one of your strawmen.

I think the EC would be doing its constitutional duty if they voted for someone else, but I neither expected nor hoped it would happen. Given all the circumstances, it would be a calamity.

Nate Silver had the election at about two-to-one for Hillary, which as Russ is saying is a pretty good chance for Trump, so I wasn't shocked when he won. I posted on here saying something about supporting Trump if he wins, on the morning of election day. Nate also said that black turnout would be critical, and it turned out to be one of the deciding factors. So I don't know what 'fake news' you're talking about (it's your new favorite phrase, and I'm sure you'll give us all plenty of chance to get tired of it), but the news I read was pretty accurate.
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« Reply #99 on: Dec 20, 2016, 01:10PM »

On the eve of the election, ALL of the polls were predicting a major win for Clinton.


That's not correct.

The national polls, on average, were predicting a 1-3% popular vote win for Clinton, which is what happened.

A few, like LA Times predicted Trump to win the popular vote, which didn't happen.

The electoral college predictions were indeed way off but those were based on state polls that weren't polled as often or as with sample sizes of the national polls.  It really only took about three state poll errors to throw the Electoral college prediction off.

Overall, the polls were much like their track record: national numbers reasonably close, state numbers with surprises.

In the end, Nate Silver gave Trump a 1 out of 4 chance of winning and we got that 1 chance out of 4. 

1 out of four is like the specific result of two coin flips. It's not something that never happens.  1 out of 4 happens quite a bit.
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